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The average of the absolute natural temperature change over the four periods was 0.095 °C/century, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures utilizing many palaeo-temperature proxy records, adapted from Ljungqvist 2010.

The upper 95% limit dropped dramatically from 4.05 °C using AR5 forcing to only 2.2 °C when using the new Stevens aerosol forcing estimates.The long time between these periods has the effect of averaging out the effect of short-term ocean oscillations such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but it does not account for millennium scale ocean oscillations or indirect solar influences.The 5th assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a best estimate of aerosol forcing of -0.9 W/m [WG1 AR5 page 571].The analysis gives the TCR best estimate at 1.21 °C with a likely range [17 – 83%] of 1.05 to 1.45 °C.Energy balance estimates of ECS and TCR use these equations: , where F.

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